Bruno Gonçalves’s Epidemic Modeling 102: All CoVID-19 models are wrong, but some are useful (for a more in-depth read)Īge-structured SEIR model focused on low- and middle-income countries (details as of 23 August 2020).
COVID Act Now’s COVID Data 101: What is an SEIR model? (for a brief video).
Youyang Gu’s Model Details (for a brief read).
You can learn more about how SEIR models work by exploring these resources: Two key ones are the effective reproduction number (Rt) 6 – how many other people a person with COVID-19 infects at a given time – and the infection fatality rate (IFR) – the percent of people infected with a disease who die from it. How individuals move through these states is determined by different model “parameters,” of which there are many. Three of the four models we look at are “SEIR” 4 models, 5 which simulate how individuals in a population move through four states of a COVID-19 infection: being Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (or deceased). To do this simply click “Change country” on each chart. We also aim to make the model estimates easily accessible in our interactive charts, allowing you to quickly explore different models of the pandemic for most countries in the world. In this post we examine these four models and how they differ by unpacking their essential elements: what they are used for, how they work, the data they are based on, and the assumptions they make. Back in March the estimated discrepancy between confirmed cases and true infections was even many times higher. When the number of confirmed cases in the US reached a peak in late July 2020, the IHME and LSHTM models estimated that the true number of infections was about twice as high as confirmed cases, the ICL model estimated it was nearly three times as high, and Youyang Gu’s model estimated it was more than six times as high. But the models disagree by how much, and how infections have changed over time. Two things are clear from this chart: All four models agree that true infections far outnumber confirmed cases.
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
3 For comparison, the number of confirmed cases is also shown. The chart here shows the mean estimates of the true number of daily new infections in the United States from four of the most prominent models.
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